This weekend’s Kigali World Championship road races will mark the first time world-class racing has taken place in Africa. You wouldn’t know that from looking at the punishing course, with its 267 kilometers and 6,000 meters of climbing. The Kigali road race, with its dozens of short, selective climbs, endless bends, and even a significant cobbled section, has all the elements of a classic World Championship course. The Men’s also includes the Mont Kigali climb, a torturous 6km stair-step climb with steep pitches up to 14% mixed into its deceptive 5.9% average gradient. That climb, coming with just over 100km of racing, will likely serve as the buy-in for the high-stakes finale. Only the big players, the Grand Tour winners, the Classics champions, and those lucky enough to be on a super-legs day will survive to play on.
The women face a similar challenge, covering nearly 165 kilometers and climbing nearly 3,500 meters. They skip Mont Kigali and head directly into the finishing circuit, taking on over 20 ascents, repeating the two decisive climbs: the steeper 800-meter, 8% Kigali Golf climb and the longer, cobbled 1.3-kilometer, 6% Kimihurura climb. Unlike many Worlds courses, there is no gradual warm-up over gentler roads to allow a breakaway to form and build into the action. Both fields take on the critical climbs within minutes of the start. For the smaller women’s field, especially, we could see meaningful attacks and splits very early in the day.
The Americans
The American team brings a combination of veteran leadership and young potential, but lacks a true top-tier contender for this course. Brandon McNulty would have fit that category, but unlike many of his UAE teammates, he has opted to skip these Worlds. Super-climber Sepp Kuss is also absent, leaving Magnus Sheffield, Quinn Simmons as their strongest options, with solid riders like Larry Warbasse and Will Barta for support.
Quinn Simmons rode to a strong 3rd place in Quebec, signaling his form is good.
On the women’s side, only two riders will wear the Stars and Stripes jersey, with Ruth Edwards leading the charge, supported by Chloe Dygert. Dygert, despite her world champion pedigree, won’t be looking forward to a course as lumpy as this one and had a rough ride in the TT earlier in the week. Edwards has a shot, though. She was 3rd on a mountain stage of the Tour this year and has a win at the Ardennes semi-classic Brabantse Pijl and a Giro stage on her palmarès. If the stars align, Edwards could be a dark horse for a top 10 or better.
The Canadians
From a Canadian fan perspective, the hope in the men’s race will be an early breakaway ride leading to a surprise result. Project Echelon’s Laurent Gervais and Ineos rider Michael Leonard are Canada’s only two competitors in the race, with stars like Derek Gee and Michael Woods opting not to make the long trip to Rwanda. Leonard has taken a step forward this year, with his strong time trial results and big breakaway rides in top races like the Dauphine. He could play a part in the finale if things go his way.
On the women’s side, Canada brings a larger contingent of six riders but with a similar underdog status. National Champion Alison Jackson leads the way, but she will definitely be looking to steal a march on the climbing specialists early on to stay in the game. Magdeleine Vallieres, Olivia Baril, and Nadia Gontova have all shown impressive climbing chops in their young careers, and there’s no better time for a breakthrough performance.
Canada’s best chance for a rainbow jersey is likely in the Junior Women’s field with climbing sensation and friend of Pez, Sidney Swierenga. Swierenga held the world number one ranking at times this season and turned in massive results on the high altitude climbs of the Tour of the Gila in the Spring. The Junior Women’s race will run before the Elite Women on Saturday.
Men’s Preview: Tadej vs. The Field
It would be redundant to explain how this Worlds course suits Tadej Pogacar because, barring a flat sprinter’s race, every course seems to play to his strengths. Up a longer climb up, like Mont Kigali-Tadej, is the best in the world. Shorter steeper climbs-advantage Tadej, short cobbled bergs, see Tadej’s Flanders title. Favorite for a solo breakaway, also Tadej. Reduced group sprint, you guessed it.
Much has been made of Pogacar’s off day in the Worlds ITT earlier this week, which led to a resounding victory for Remco Evenpoel. I don’t think the Slovenian world number one will lose much sleep over it. He suffered a far bigger defeat in the 2023 Worlds TT, finishing a distant 21st, only to turn in a podium performance in the road race. And anyone who has watched cycling in the last two years knows 2025 Pogacar is at an entirely different level.
Pogacar will benefit from at least two strong teammates in Primoz Roglic and Matej Mohoric, who should be effective options in the finale. His potential adversaries, like Ecuador’s Richard Carapaz, Ireland’s Ben Healey, and Mexico’s Isaac Del Toro, won’t have the same quality of teammates. Even Spanish contender Juan Ayuso will likely be on his own even if teammate Marc Soler is still in the race. Those riders will aim to survive the initial selection and then roll the dice in attacks, hoping to catch Pogacar in a weak tactical moment.
Remco will have a deep team behind him in Belgian colors, as will Vuelta stand-out Ciccione with a host of Italian puncheurs on the start line. Even Brit Tom Pidcock has a talented sidekick in Oscar Onley. France has a deep team as well, but lacks a true superstar, likely led by the resurgent, crowd favorite Alaphilippe. Even so, it’s hard to see any of the traditional super-teams offering their leaders a significant edge over Pogacar and his Slovenian team.
Of course, Tadej can be beaten; nothing is out of the question on a World Championship Sunday. Remco and Tom Pidcock stand out as the riders who could actually challenge Pogacar mano-a-mano in the closing stages. If they are still on Pog’s wheel in the final lap of the circuits, anything could happen. The others will have to rely on superior tactics, numbers, and a bit of luck to have a shot at the rainbow stripes. Either way, I expect the World Tour’s first trip to Africa will be an instant classic.
The Women: Battle of the Super Teams
We have become accustomed to seeing Women’s World Cup front groups dominated by the orange jerseys of the Netherlands squad in recent years. This year should be no different, with favorite Demi Vollering leading the Dutch charge into Kigali. This year though, they might be at a firepower disadvantage to the French squad featuring Tour champion Pauline Prevot-Ferrand and wealth of other “A-list” talent like Juliette Labous, Evita Muzic and Cedrine Karabaol. Italy has a strong supporting cast for Giro champ Elisa Longo Borghini and even Switzerland boasts a potent one-two punch in TT winner Marlen Reusser and Elise Chabbey.
Demi Vollering should love this super tough course.
Without the selection pressure of Mont Kigali, the female contenders will have to be tactically astute and rely on their teammates to survive early attacks from a full field of fresh riders on the finishing circuits. As Annamieke Van Vleuten proved several years ago at the Yorkshire Worlds, any attack is dangerous even with hours of racing to go. We may see the big teams attempt to shred the peloton and reduce the numbers very early on to allow for a simpler tactical picture. Even if no team takes control there will likely be a battle to send satellite riders up the road in a breakaway and get an edge on the competition.
The women’s course resembles a race like Liege-Bastogne-Liege, a classic course that is hard enough to favor both puncheurs and certain GC stars. Prevot-Ferrand and Vollering stand out as the odds-on favorites, both with Tour de France victories and masterful displays in the Ardennes on their respective resumes. However, both are unknown in terms of current form, with only one race start each since the Tour. Their talented teammates will be eager for a shot at victory should either falter on race day.
African Champ and TDFF contender Kimberley Le Court Pineaar is the bookies’ #2 choice.
There is an African contender in the race who is the current Liege champion and won stages in the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, and Tour of Britain this year. Kimberley Pienaar brings Mauritius to the top level of bike racing for the first time and is a legitimate contender for the title. If she can play her cards well and weather the storm of attacks from the stronger teams, she is as capable as anyone in the finale. It would be a dream win for many, but it will be an uphill battle to make it a reality on Saturday.
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